My
candidate, Ben Carson, is polling pretty well in most polls. He is now polling
around first or second place, after Trump. The story that these polls tell
about my candidate is that in the beginning no one knew who he was and he
worked hard to get to where he is now.
Here in this graph Ben Carson is
the red line and you can’t even find him in the crowd until late August. Polls
also tell another story about my candidate.
When looking at polls in regard to
who has the most money Ben Carson is not even included.
So what do
these polls really tell you? I think the most actuate thing I have read about
polls is that polls don’t predict. Peter Brow, an assistant director of the
Quinnipiac University Polling Institute said, "The notion that a poll will
tell you what's going to happen in 2016 is a ludicrous notion". A poll is
only a snapshot of that specific time and things are always changing.
Yes a
poll can give you a general notion of where the candidates stand but this far
out it is not accurate of who is going to be president. npr posted an article
about polling and it talked about early polls being the least accurate. It
said, "Consider this 2011 blog post from George Washington University
political scientist (and early polling critic) John Sides, in which he found
that the further out from an election a poll is, the less likely respondents
are to choose the eventual nominee." The article goes on the talk about
that early polls a lot of times are more about name recognition and that seems
like it could be a good explanation of why Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are
in the lead. It is too early to really tell what the candidates believe so
people go off of name recognition at first.
I think polls right now can only
tell us about where the candidates stand today but I also think that all of
those numbers can and will change by election time.
Ben Carson is doing much better than I thought. To be quite honest, I don't follow him and had not the slightest idea of where his standings abide. Bringing up the quote you mentioned from Peter Brow was a good point to make. It's too early for us to make assumptions. Regardless of this fact, I believe there could be a little more that we can take away from his polling data from a year out rather than just stating reasons why it's too early for support. From the poll data above, for what reason do you think reflects his standings of were he currently resides in the race?
ReplyDeleteI really do not know much about Ben Carson besides having him in my polls with Carly Fiorina. I agree with you on polls we see today are only for the time being. In a year from things can change. My question is how should Carson continue to stay near the top of the race? What things is he doing well or could help him become even more known?
ReplyDeleteOlivia - I think Carson should continue to speak his mind because people really like that he says what he wants and I think he could get more well know with more political ads.
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ReplyDeleteGreat blog post! I like learning about Ben Carson in any way I can because I think there is a very good chance he will be our republican candidate. I appreciate that you mentioned how pols are just snapshots because they are always changing. What do you think Carson needs to do to get his polls ahead of Trump and prove that he has a real chance at winning this when compared to Trump?
ReplyDeleteElsie, i really enjoyed your blog with the incorporation of the statistical graphs. I think its very interesting how you stated that even with not having the largest campaign or not having the most campaign money he is still in the lead. That being said we know that early pollls have no significance right now. Do you think Carson should keep doing what he is doing or change some of his tactics?
ReplyDeleteCarson is doing amazing in the polls right now! how can he maintain this lead and what can he do to win against Donald trump?
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